The Future Economic Super-League: China, India & the United States by 2075 – Based on Goldman Sachs long-term projections
Investment Bank Goldman Sachs has said that India is poised to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075 crossing Japan, Germany, and the U.S. With a population of 1.4 billion people, India’s GDP is estimated to expand remarkably, reaching 52.5 trillion dollars surpassing the US GDP projection.
A recent social-media post titled “World’s Biggest Economies in 2075 (Goldman Sachs Projections)” captures an important narrative shift in the global economy.
It highlights three nations at the head of the pack: China, India and the United States. But what lies behind these names, and how credible are the projections?
In this article we unpack the research, explore key drivers and implications — and outline what this could mean for India in particular.
What the Research Says:
Goldman Sachs’ 2022 research paper “The Path to 2075 — Slower Global Growth, But Convergence Remains Intact” projects long-run GDP out to the year 2075, covering 104 countries.
Some of the headline findings:
Global potential growth is expected to average just under 3% per year in the near term (2024-29) and decline gradually thereafter.
Emerging markets (EMs) still show a pattern of convergence—closing the gap with advanced economies—driven by Asia’s rise.
By 2075, the three largest economies by nominal GDP are projected to be China, India and the U.S. in some order.
For example: “China and India are projected to be larger than the US by 2075 ».
At the same time, though, the U.S. is projected to remain richer on a per-capita basis than both.
Other emerging economies show strong gains, but even by 2075 they remain well behind the top three in scale.
In Indian media commentary: GS is cited as saying India could reach ~US$52.5 trillion GDP by 2075 — surpassing the U.S. output in nominal terms.
The image you shared reflects this narrative: China at #1, India as #2 (moving ahead of the U.S.), then the U.S. (and then several others like Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan etc).
Why These Three Countries?
Let’s break down what drives each of the top three economies’ projected position — and what the major challenges are.
China:
China has already overtaken many economies in scale, and its manufacturing base, infrastructure investment, and export-oriented growth have been fundamental.
In the GS model, China’s growth benefits from earlier catch-up and large effective scale of capital and labour. But GS projects China’s labour force growth will decline significantly, reducing one of the engines of past growth.
Challenges for China include ageing population, slowing productivity growth, environmental / decarbonisation pressures, and geopolitical/trade risks.
Thus, while China may attain the largest nominal GDP by 2075, the rate of growth slows relative to its earlier decades.
India:
India is presented by GS as having a favourable demographic window: a large working-age population, lower dependency ratios over the next couple of decades.
Productivity improvements, infrastructure build-out, digital economy/innovation are cited as key levers.
For India to hit its potential, GS notes: raising labour-force participation, raising skills/training, building manufacturing/services capacity, and infrastructure investment are essential.
In the projections, India is forecast to surpass the U.S. in nominal GDP by 2075 and take the #2 spot behind China (or possibly ahead).
Key challenges: infrastructure deficits, institutional reform, employment/skills, integration in global value-chains, domestic inequality.
United States:
The U.S. remains strong due to innovation, deep capital markets, institutional strength, high productivity, and large consumer market.
In GS’s modelling, while its GDP may be overtaken in nominal terms, the U.S. still remains high in per-capita terms and retains structural advantages.
Challenges: demographic headwinds (ageing population), slower potential growth, competition from emerging markets, geopolitical/trade shifts.
What the Forecasts Imply for 2075 & Beyond:
If one accepts the broad strokes of the GS projections, the following implications emerge:
Global economic centre of gravity shifts further east. Asia (notably China and India) takes the lead in size and influence.
Emerging economies matter even more. Several emerging-market countries (e.g., Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan) may enter the top 10 by 2075.
Advanced economy growth slows. As labour-force growth tails off globally, productivity becomes even more critical.
Rich-poor gaps persist. Even as India & China grow large in absolute terms, GS emphasises that per-capita incomes of advanced economies will remain higher.
Geopolitics, sustainability, decarbonisation & demographics become central. Long-run growth depends not just on scale but on institutional/structural reforms, green transition, global integration.
Why This Matters for India:
The possibility that India becomes the second-largest economy by 2075 (in nominal terms) is huge. It underscores the importance of the “big picture” and long-term strategic thinking.
For Indian businesses, investors and policy-makers: the window of demographic advantage is time-limited. The next 10-20 years are critical to build the foundation for the 2050-2075 horizon.
Infrastructure, manufacturing, digital economy, skills & education, labour reform, global trade integration—all become central priorities if the ambition is to match the scale.
Also second-order effects: as India grows in scale, its role in global supply-chains, global capital flows, innovation ecosystems, will grow. For Indian firms and investors, being plugged into that trend is important.
On the flip side: the projections are not guaranteed. They depend on structural reforms, stable macro-policy, institutions, global environment. India must avoid complacency.
Caveats & Things to Keep in Mind:
These are long-term projections, not precise predictions. GS themselves note large uncertainty especially when projecting decades ahead.
Nominal GDP rankings do not tell the full story: Differences in GDP per capita, purchasing power, inequality, and living standards matter. India may be large in aggregate, but still behind in average income for decades.
External shocks matter: pandemics, climate change, wars, technology disruptions could significantly alter trajectories.
Measurement issues: GDP is one metric; impact, quality of growth, sustainability of growth are others.
Scale of “largest economy” is a moving concept—global currency strength, inflation, exchange rate changes will influence nominal USD-based comparisons.
Growth alone isn’t everything: human development, environment, equitable growth & inclusion matter.
What Should Stakeholders Do?
Policy-makers (in India / elsewhere): Use this long-term frame to guide infrastructure investment, education/skills development, manufacturing/exports strategy, green transition, trade policy.
Businesses & investors: Look at sectors likely to benefit from scale, from domestic consumption growth, from global supply-chain shifts as India/Asia rise. Also hedge for risks: regulatory, geopolitical, environmental.
Civil society / citizens: Recognise that growth in aggregate is not enough — inclusion, human development, quality of growth matter. Rising economy should translate into higher living standards broadly.
Global players: Understand that power and influence will shift. Emerging economies’ priorities will shape global trade, climate policy, investment flows.
Conclusion:
The image you shared summarises a striking message: by 2075, the global economic landscape could look markedly different from today, with Asia’s leading economies — China and India — taking centre stage, and the U.S. remaining a major but no longer uncontested leader.
The research by Goldman Sachs offers a structured way to think about this shift: slower global growth overall, but meaningful convergence of large emerging economies, driven by demographics, productivity and investment.
For India in particular, the opportunity is enormous — but so are the responsibilities. Achieving the scale projected will require sustained reform, investment, institutional strength and global integration.
In short: the next decades matter just as much as the next year. Being ready for 2075 means acting today.
Team- Intellex Strategic Consulting Private Limited
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